🔴 Brexit – Will the UK Leave the EU? (w/ Nigel Farage) | Real Vision Clasics


Mr. Frosh, it’s a pleasure to have you with us again
So many people in America and around the world, especially in the states have gotten to know you through
Videos and clips on the Fox and all the different networks
But what I love about the real vision long program is its really getting to know?
You having our investors globally getting to know a person like yourself in a deeper more personal format?
just bring us back to
Your days and many people don’t understand the things about your past and what the evolution of your ideas
So your former years ears in finance. For example, yeah. All right, my first job
first September
1982
working for Drexel Burnham Lambert, which and Drexel had just bought
An old firm of london metal exchange brokers in london. That was my first job. So I spent five years
working
At Drexel I then spent five or six years at Credit Lyonnais
Which then was a state-owned?
French bank it wasn’t for me and there was a parting of the ways
With that one and then I spent nine years working for FK that leaves chicago-based
Tricia
Absolutely, and that was a that was a great place to work it sort of it ended badly
Yeah for them, and it was a great place to work. So most of my life
Most my business life was involved with battle, you know base metals copper
aluminium as we say aluminium as you say, yeah, you know nickel Tim zing LED
But also I did a family currency trading as well during those years, so I spent some time
As a broker but also some time as a market maker. So so yeah, I mean my life was the
City, my life was financial markets. I loved it but politics kind of took over. How did you make that switch?
I mean, it’s so hard this you you’re twenty thousand feet deep in finance. Yeah, you’re in your 20s 30s. Yeah and
You know first of all
What inspired you to make that risk?
Because one of things that I look at is the risk of taking that jump to that next field
Well, it is a big risk because I mean the truth of it is, you know, the public think that politicians are incredibly well-paid
They’re not
You never even know so actually for me doing it. There was a huge financial hit but it kind of occurred because
in about 86 87
We had something developed called the single European market and the idea was that across the whole of Europe
There would be exactly the same rules
the same regulations
the creation of an economic isotopic plane and that somehow this would be good for business and I thought well actually as a trader I
Don’t want things to be the same. I like differences. I like competition
I think that individual government should be able to set their own tax levels their own
Employment levels so as a free markets here. I was instinctively
Concerned about it. But also now when the phone rang, you know, it could easily be
Frankfurt or Paris, but probably it’s more likely to be Santiago or Singapore
It was a global business. Yeah, so I I from an economic perspective. I thought what are we doing?
getting ourselves so closely tied to the European economic model given the fact as a big world out there and then politically I
Began to realize in the early nineties that the common market as we called
It was actually about the creation of a new state. They wanted to build the United States of Europe
They just didn’t want to tell anybody about what is the common market to the average viewer me?
Well, the common market was the concept basically of a free trade zone. Well, you don’t have quota
Well, you don’t have tariffs and that’s how the European project was sold to my parents generation
They say you know, what’s not to like, you know free trade zone
No, just so leniently. Absolutely
But it was clear but the nineties he was becoming so much more and for me the the the biggest moment of a lot
Was October 1990?
quarter past hoppers 5:00
in the pub
Opposite the London Metal Exchange, which is what traders tend to to say
and somebody came in and said we’ve just joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the exchange rate mechanism was a means of
Pegging sterling against the basket of European currencies, but of course the deutsche mark clearly being the heaviest by waiting
And we were doing this
Because the British government wanted us to join what became the euro
And I remember that night saying this is cretinous. We’re making a huge mistake
It won’t work and by 1992, you know
We finished up with interest rates being double what they should have been record bankruptcies record house repossessions
And I thought you know what? I was right about that
And if I was right about that, maybe I’m right about other that it was it was me saying to myself. I don’t get this
but seeing
virtually every national newspaper
virtually every employers Federation every trade union
Every political party saying it was the right thing to do and there was I screaming that it wasn’t
And that kind of inspired me
I thought well, I forgot about it if I’ve got that right maybe I should give politics ago and you start the UKIP
Yeah, the most lonely and I just picture this empty meadow with you out there
and and and now this meadow has become a
Field field filled the people. I mean what were your first steps to create the Union?
What’s at the the United Kingdom independence movement for a party? Yeah party. Well, I mean it was it was I
Began to because of the way I was feeling about
This European project, you know, I began to write letters
Myself to the national newspapers and start getting published and doing things like that and before long I you know
I I discovered a group of people who felt very much the same mostly academics. They were mostly people from academia. Not from business
I have to say that most of my
friends family
Business colleagues, I mean they just thought I’d gone nuts
You know, I think they sort of thought I’d smoke something funny
What was I doing lord shiva’s crusade, but I you know when you work in financial markets, you’ve got to be prepared to
Admit you’re wrong
often several times in one day
And I’ve always been prepared to admit I’m wrong in life and yet
somehow
Get it right back to the early nineties
I just knew this was the right thing to do and I just knew I had to do it
I mean, is it a calling? I don’t quite know what it is, but I just believed
but I wanted to do this and I believed I
Kind knew
that the gut instinct feelings I had about the European project about the loss of democracy about the loss of sovereignty I
Somehow knew that at some point it would reach a wider audience. What I didn’t know was quite how long it would take me and
If you think of the viewers of real vision and around the world, I’m watching us right now. What’s the one thing?
That people don’t really understand about you
Well, I think it’s very easy when you’re a figure that is against the establishment
It’s quite easy given the tidal wave of abuse and criticism that you get
For people to form an impression that somehow the things that I fought for
Were extreme or hard right or you know?
all these things that got said and and I guess I
Don’t let much upset me because you couldn’t survive in this business if you see it
But I think those that get the impression that somehow
Because you want your sovereignty because you believe in sensible immigration controls that somehow this is some sort of extreme
neo-fascist
tendency
That’s the one thing that probably just does actually upset me when people form that impression
I mean, I was a member of the Conservative Party. That is my biggest sin
they’re like really committee doesn’t at all and I was a big advocate of
Thatcher of Reagan do I believe in capitalism I believe in free markets
Nothing extreme about it. But this is what happens all through history you
Get an establishment consensus forms around a status quo position and anybody
that comes and attacks it whether it’s in science or business or politics is denigrated it as being mad and bad and
What do you say to that middle class?
Person in the UK runs a small business that has relationships throughout Europe and that they’re hard brexit
You know would disrupt that family and family vision in the short haul. What do you say to that person?
Well, I mean the first point to make is eat that doesn’t have to be the case
Okay, you know I’ve been GATT the gap treaty has been around a very long time, you know article 24 of the cat treaty
Means that we could go to
The WTO. That’s the World Trade Organization. Yep in Geneva
So the UK can go to the WTO and the EU would need to as well
And we could leave on March 29th at 11 p.m. UK time and
under
Article 24 of GATT we would have a minimum period of two years
During which we could negotiate a new trade agreement
During that series a year kind of timeout period or an integration period basically for two years nothing would change
yet we would continue on the current trading terms of that two-year period
So it doesn’t have to be a hard landing brexit. There is actually a very sensible very very easy way out
But even if we did leave
with a bumpy landing and with tariffs
That would be quite tough for
lamp producers whiskey producers or
Manufactured goods. It’ll make them was no difference. No tariffs on manufactured goods right two or three percent
It’s less than the weekly currency move
And so there’s a lot of nonsense talked about many things like that, but I would say this to them the word
that has disappeared from our political narrative in the UK is
competitive
We’ve been so used
Over the course of 40 years to harmonizing our regulations
Homogenizing our regulations they I mean past your eyes the Arabic
Oh
it’s all become the same and actually breaking free of the European Club gives us a chance to
Diverge over time and to be more competitive in terms of regulation in so I mean think of the City of London
think of method to the
Massive cost as a method to is this new it’s kind of like your version of dodd-frank and it’s like yes, that’s right
That’s a financial regulation system that comes from the European you comes the European
It impacts the banking system in London. It massively impacts the brokers dealers and traders in London. It doesn’t actually protect anybody
It just makes London. It makes Europe a much more expensive place to do business
You know
I keep hearing this argument because of what Goldman Sachs a or JP Morgan says
That all the city of London is in favor of the European Union, but it’s not really, you know
The big might like it because they get a chance to write their own rulebook and it might hurt them a little bit
But it has their competitors even more but we’ve seen over the last 10 years at least 18,000 jobs leaving
Financial services in London going in insurance going to Bermuda hedge funds leaving going to Geneva Zurich, Singapore
actually, you know, we’re making
London a
Difficult place to do business. I’ve got several friends of mine. Who and that’s not necessarily an independence movement created
That was much more from mithy
That’s your point if it’s one example of it, but I’ve got friends who now have set up businesses in in, New York
It’s much easier now to do business in New York than it is to do it in London the truth of it
is that both the French emerge Germans have never understood the
Anglo-saxon market system that New York and London, in fact, they actually hate it
They hates it and so I think being outside of that common rule book
Phenomenal opportunity for London, which is after all a very international City
Anyway, so I see I see a great future
And anyway, they given the financial services is Britain’s biggest business shouldn’t we be in control of the rules?
Not somebody else. So you’re spending more time in the United States. You’re on the speaking tour here. You’re working with financial institutions
You’re more I think an advisor now to some US investors because of this movement. How is that working?
And how in your relationship with the president?
I mean clearly the president being a friend makes a big difference again because everyone wants that I wasn’t really like
But yeah, I mean look all of business here particularly
The finance business is fascinated. What’s gonna happen to the euro what’s gonna happen to the European project?
And one of the reasons they want to hear from me and I you know, I speak a client breakfast or whatever. It may be
One of the reason they want to hear from me is like what quite good form on this, you know?
I’ve made some big calls that have turned out to be right. I mean brexit in front was a twin double
You know that happened back in 2016
But also people need to understand that what’s going on here is there’s a giant battle going on here
In politics across the entire western world, its globalism
versus nationalism and
Actually, the European Union is if you like the prototype for the globalists of the New World Order
But I’m not being a conspiracy theorist here, but they want to create a new world order
And if Hillary had won the presidency, you know
She’d already talked on Wall Street about America becoming part of a hemispheric European single market. So people are
People very keen to know what do I think is going to happen and I’m happy to tell them. Yeah
well
our bear traps report clients have mentioned the most impressive thing in the last year’s most people thought that your
Politics would overrule your financial opinions, but in the last year we’ve seen you make some profound in December
I mean you you really took the may
Appeasement process to heart and you thought that this would play out in other words in an extended
Way in other words you in other words more bullish for the past. Yeah
I’ve been arguing as you say before Christmas
I was talking here against my own political book
But I was arguing that
the fears the short-term fears that the currency markets and equity markets have of
us leaving with no deal of us returning to it and that peaked around December 58 did it did and I was saying very publicly
Actually in reality. I think what will happen is the camel get kicked down the road
I don’t think Parliament’s got the heart or the will at this moment in time
To deliver the brexit that people voted for so yeah
I’ve been arguing since Christmas that extension is the most likely thing and that actually the short term effect on the markets is
Mildly bullish for the both the power and you can’t go juice and you’ve had the Corbin risk for the pound and for the UK
Credit rating that seems to have gone. So I think the Corbin risk peaked in June July
June last year
Coal, boom was running at about 40% and let’s bring back. He’s the head of the Labour Party in the UK
He is the hard left leader the most labor most hostile to bondholders and creditors potentially on the road
Absolutely. I mean this is
You know the Labour Party has it socialist roots
Of course
But this is by far the most left-wing leader the Labour Party’s ever had
And indeed the whole party’s been taken over by hard left
Activists and I I look sometimes of what’s happening to the Democrats
In this country, I see slightly the same tendency beginning to occur
So people were terrified that a Corbin government and there would mean basically capital flight
Hmm like we had back in the nineteen seventies. I think what’s happened since June is
His position is so extreme
he has brought with him a
group of people whose
Hostility to the existence of Israel actually spills over into just plain outright anti-semitism
And that’s something middle England doesn’t like mmm middle England decent people. They don’t wanna be associated with that kind of thing
So you’ve now got a fragmentation of splinter?
The nine Labour MPs so far have resigned from the past. Oh, no, it’s oh, this is a splinter within the Labour Party
Yeah yet nine of them have left
and
They they’ve left for three reasons one the tinge of anti-semitism to
That it’s so extreme now on the left that actually a sort of moderate socialist social democrat doesn’t feel comfortable and three
Of course because of the European position and the ones that have left are the outright
We must have a second referendum. We must operates it from happening. But either way
Labour is the Labour vote is split down the middle, you know of the 12 million votes the Corbyn got timber 2017 general election
5 million of those had voted brexit the year before
So you’ve got the Labour Party split on brexit and equally the Conservative Party split as well
British politics can’t cope with brexit but the point is that splinter
Has even though it’s any you know, just more than a handful of them
He’s now in the polls down at 25 26 percent and I think the threat of a Corbin government has diminished
Hugely, and that’s very good news for investors and good news for business
So let’s talk about actionable cash for investors watching us over the next two months
So February 27th, we have a parliamentary vote and then we have the EU summit
You saw because that’s in early, March 25 snack in the mouth
and then we have the parliamentary elections walk us through what investors watching us right now those
catalysts and in the way
The those kettles are going to swing market sentiment 27th of February is the next time the government will put they call it a neutral
motion before the House of Commons, but basically they bring
Parliament up to date with how the negotiations are going with those lovely people like Monsieur Barnea and mr
Yonkers so miss meadows around Europe can it gets a flavour of the deal that she can yes together mrs
Makings it’s back. The prices may goes to Europe and Beggs
Before unelected bureaucrats and Brussels in ask for concessions. I just find the whole thing humiliating, but hey
So whether on the 27th
The anti brexit mp’s strike or whether they wait remains to be seen
but there was an amendment the Cooper bowls amendment that didn’t pass in Parliament last time but what it basically says is that
If No, Deal can be agreed
Article 50 should be extended the cam should be kicked down the road. What does that mean for the market?
Well, it said, it means no change
It means that’s why I think we’re there’s a reserve alley and so there will be a little bit of a rally and that happens
Although it won’t be a big one
Because it was one thing businesses and investors do want is some certainty of where we’re going with there if you kick the can down
The road for a year. Well, what’s to stop you kicking it down the road for another year. What’s to stop maybe?
Momentum for a second referendum. So in that company’s CFO’s
Treasurer’s can’t make those capital expenditure. Yeah decisions everywhere
I go Larry, you know people in business say look whatever the deal is. Just give it to it. Just tell us you
Know and then we can start to behave again. So that’s it. So that is a problem
So 27th of February could be a big day
13th 14th of March will be massive in the UK Parliament because that’ll be the last big debate
Before she goes off on the 21st of March to Brussels
to the summit where you know the 28
Presidents and Plattsburgh, she’ll probably get through the final offer
From the EU I would think so, but if she does get a final offer them
That would any give us 7 days
For parliamentary right now
How does how is that connected?
Don’t forget
that after Parliament it deals with this the European Parliament has the final say
So the final final vote is actually gonna be in Brussels or Strasbourg and I of course will be a part of that
so for all these reasons
You can see why
Extension looks more and more likely
the deal
the deal that she’s negotiated is
arguably
From a political point of view even worse than EU membership, but at least with EU membership
We could trigger article 50 and give an intention to leave
With the withdrawal agreement we could be stuck in it in perpetuity
So she’s not handled this at all. Well, I really want to understand the European elections. Yeah
populous evolved a obviously
The movement AFD in germany liga 5 star in Italy even Vox now in Spain. Yep. These are all
Populist parties that have gone from as you’ve explained I saw you speak at an event of banking event where you said
Liga and salvini were one to three percent of the vote 10 years ago where they explained that well that impact on
The 30s now in the 30. Yeah, it’s remark. This is Italy Liga, you know, when do you think about Italian government?
So what do they have? I think 51 governments in the first 50 years after World War two
I mean, you know chaos is the norm in
Italian politics and the governments come in and governments go this government this merger that has happened between
Five star they were you know on the Left the Lea they’re on the right. Their approval ratings are up in the 60s
Together. Yep together and it’s working
And so this would be like an America a Bernie Sanders party and a Trump party together in many ways
It would be yeah in many ways when it’s just fascinating to him Americans I think but it’s working
they
They’re clearly on a collision course
Because you know one group wants to spend one group wants to cut taxes the house
That’s different sustainable funny that well, the coalition forces compromised obviously, but you know
They presented a budget
their annual budget
With a deficit running at about 2.4 percent and all right. I know
Some of the future projections were a little bit optimistic
For great, but it wasn’t by any means an outrageous budget particularly given the French after yeah
The expectations were I think four or five percent, right? That’s right, and they came in with two point four
I thought it was relatively responsible and yet
The European Commission, you know and I repeat the point
Men and women who we can’t vote for men and women here. We can’t remove people who have power without accountability
rejected
The Italian budget and made them cut it and I think these European elections
particularly our effectively gonna be a virility test of
Italian political passes against that amount of
Brussels the EU Parliament and
Net net net a larger percentage of populace will be in there
look, you know, I mean when I was first elected to the European Parliament in in
1999 I mean I was the only
Secessionist in the place. I
Was I was one of the 600 the something. Hey, you know I was the only person really there
Saying we shouldn’t be part of this. It’s gonna be very different. I think was gonna be a big move. I
would I
would guess that
We’re gonna finish up with I would think 25 percent of the Parliament may be near a 30 will be um,
ep’s with a pretty
robustly skeptical attitude
Towards the way the European Union works
doesn’t mean there’ll be outright secessionist, but it means they will be you’re a critical in many many ways and kind of
what I think we’re gonna see happening is I think the
discipline that keeps the eurozone together
You know and that combination of ECB
At times IMF and set a European Commission that discipline that tells countries what they must have must not do
That’s gonna fragment that’s gonna start very soon now, so you had miss Angela Merkel. Yeah incredible leader through obviously
2010-11 through the last eight nine. Yeah, I take a decade almost
Yeah, she was the glue of Europe and what you’re describing is a more fragmented power base throughout Europe
Well, she’s going yeah, she’s gone. She’s going
Amazing isn’t it, you know glittering political career ruined by one mistake
Yep, that one phrase let them come as many they want to come Carmen. It’s ruined immigration
so it’s ruined so a lot of people here in the state’s think that if if she had taken if the Europe had handled this
Immigration issue over say a decade and didn’t try to jam it down. Everyone’s throat
is that is that your argument is that that’s what well, I think that if you if you bring in
You know huge numbers of people in a very short space of time
Nearly all of whom are young males?
Aged between 20 and 30 and who come from countries where women aren’t even second-class citizens, you know
Don’t be surprised that they’re a huge huge cultural uproar
Going on in German cities and elsewhere say it was a huge huge mistake that she made
either way if you think back to
2008 and on it was actually
Merkel’s leadership
in many ways that kept the eurozone functioning and kept the whole thing working her political authority the sheer weight of
Germany as an economic power kept the whole show on the road. She’s on the way out
very unlikely
There she’s gonna be replaced by anybody with that level of stature that she has this is important. So you
think of the relationship between Germany and
think of shoval the former finance minister
you’ve had this group of people that were very
Hard on austerity, you know really forcing the austerity into the periphery which Italy Spain Portugal
Could we see a left shift there where they’re actually
more
Supportive of deficit spending in the South could that somehow be a positive coming out of Germany?
Well as disaster major, they might but it won’t be enough the Greeks had their little mini rebellion
No, they put mr. Tsipras
in power
They had the rather colorful
Finance Minister mr. Varoufakis
For a bit but in the end when it came to the standoff
Between the Greek government and the European institutions the Greeks blinked and the Greeks have now just given up basically
Italy’s a very different kettle of fish. I I
Think what you’re beginning to see
with salvini is
a
series of tests of will that are going on between him and the European institutions
And at some points now going after the ECB. Oh absolutely books apps
Absent will a proper agreement for that?
but
Yeah, and I said say what I see I see discipline breaking down within the eurozone. I think it becomes much harder
For the ECB the commissioner and Germany to limit
What governments borrow and what they spend?
So it’d be much harder for the EU to enforce my financial discipline much Hong Soo
So you have credit default swaps on at an Italian?
Sovereign bond yet. It had gone up dramatically as of the famous Memorial Day weekend. Yeah
God bless Brevan Howard. They got it, right?
Yeah
But now what’s interesting is that even as markets have rallied here in the United States?
You still have those current default swaps that did that which is actually a bet on default the cost of protection
It’s still very very elevated among Italy and the banks
so
You’re talking about 1.8 trillion of near term debt maturities in Italy. So these are bonds that are coming do
That at the same time they’re running the deficits and they’re having this confrontation. We’re talking about near term debt near term
Paper coming due in the next 3-4 years, maybe five. So you’re near term debt maturities are extremely high 1.8 trillion
How do we get through this? What where does it break? Does it break sometime in the next 18 months?
Well in the end, of course
That’s the one thing that that’s the one thing that they have over salvini
Is the worry that if they rebelled too much the whole system could go back. You know, that is the one thing that perhaps
holds the Italians back from being too rebellious, but ultimately in the end this is about public will and
We’ve seen it the brexit. I mean we were told in that referendum
That’ll be voted to leave half a million jobs would go immediately
growth would collapse
House prices would collapse plagues of black locust would descend upon our farmlands and we still very brexit
And youuuu you get to a point?
where even if you tell the Italian electorate if you start to pursue a path
Of basically looking alternatives to the euro, which is what we’re talking about. Really?
That terrible things will happen to you. Well in the end people haven’t gotten a thing have nothing to lose
And I think ultimately that’s where we’re going and financial markets have to deal with these different headlines
So you’ll have the Finance Minister the EU? Mr
Conti the EU kind of a relation preparation relationship person explain how these different headlines come out one comment says, okay they’re
potentially
Open to leave the European Union then a couple days later salvini has to come back and walk that back explain
What’s really happening behind the scenes? Well, the confusion of course is that you’ve got this coalition of
Labor and
The 5-star but there’s also a prime minister mr. Conti
and
I was with him a couple of weeks ago
And he is more of a he’s probably yes a you have a EU Prime Minister. You have an EU private idealist
It’s just different but don’t doubt don’t doubt
The changes the trends in public sentiment. I mean even in France
Polling last week 40 percent of French want to leave the European Union now, I’m not predicting
This whole thing is going to collapse in short order. What I am predicting is we’re gonna go through years of huge battles
Going on between governments. What did they make their own sovereign decisions and
central bankers
And euro politicians trying to prevent them from doing it, but the trend is very very clear
The trend is very very clear whether it’s on budget deficits
Whether it’s on sharing Germany’s migrant quotas with the Hungarians and the polls of many countries like that
You know what you’re actually saying is public opinion
moving in completely the opposite direction to Brussels and here’s the interesting thing the growth of
Euroskeptic movements or populist movements. I don’t like that word because it’s used in a pejorative sense
But but the growth of all of this has happened
during a period of
relatively benign
economics
And that’s a very important part. Right? And this is the clue. This really is the populist rise
with
Mister. Mr. Draghi has fired four point seven trillion dollar absolute of
Economic asset that’s not going to continue it
So that four point seven trillion should have helped contain populism hasn’t done. It hasn’t done it
So that program is coming very much to an end. So walk us through that so we have mr. Draghi
Leaving this is mr. Everything
It takes from June 2012, which was the big moment when he had fatal Markus reversed the positives ayah
And he’s like I said, he’s a he’s accumulated
Four point seven trillion of bonds and assets all kinds of even corporate debt. He owned some junk bonds as well
Now you may not have a strong view here. But what are you hearing around?
You know macron France the influence of the next head of the ECB
Germany obviously as a heavy hand
Mr. Weidman, I mean, where do you see this going? Because it’s all gonna come down in October
This is a year of huge change, look we’ve got the European elections happening at the end of May
We’ve got an entire new European Commission coming in in November
so
You know yonkers retiring is going off to a a bar in the sky somewhere or wherever he’s going to go
And also big change at the ECB. So this is a massive year of change within the European institutions and
It’s gonna be very interesting. You know, if if the ECB decides to be really hardcore in terms of policy
And in terms of trying its utmost to maintain discipline
Within the eurozone have that you have that 1.8 trillion of Italian bonds in the next three years. Yeah
So you need an accommodative ECB?
what I’m seeing and it’s fascinating is
Despite the uprising that we’re seeing amongst public opinion new political parties
The way Brussels is responding to this is actually to Tran centralize even more quickly
so these decisions as to who gets put in as the next Commission president, you know what direction the ECB is going to take I
Personally think that they will not be very accommodating. They will try
They will try to maintain discipline
It’s rather like the schoolteacher, you know, if the kids they respect the schoolteacher the mall the schools
He ‘tried shouts at them the worse they behave that’s almost what you’ve got here
So I I think they’re gonna try and play very tough. I think they’re gonna go for I think Brussels will choose
very centralizing people, you know quite
Aryan
People in economic terms and that will just keep the discontent going
We’re heading four years of conflict in the eurozone and we’re also seeing of course and you know
Economically some quite worrying science, you know industrial production figures a good for Germany for France, Italy
in recession I
Don’t see any prospect to be coming out of recession in the short term. So, you know, we’re now moving into
negative a
period of negative
Economics and that’s why I think the whole populist movement
In Italy you have the tax cuts ends the fiscal spending that they won. Does that get put forth?
I mean has that that where does that stick is you you had salvini ran on tax cuts and a five-star ran on deficits
When does that stimulus come into Italy?
Where is that? I didn’t lay
No, but as I said to you earlier there seem to be a popular government because there seem to be standing up against Brussels in
the end
Look in the end. This is this European project isn’t gonna be that
Big difficulty and it’s tough enough for Britain to get out on brexit. The difficulty is
How the countries leave the eurozone I’m a day somebody puts up a decent plan
For how you leave? The eurozone is the day when the whole thing will change we’re not they like a two euro system
Where you have a southern euro in a northern euro body, that would be more fair to the attendees very much
That is very much the way
That some of the thinkers inside Liga, you know
that’s the direction of travel that they’re currently it’s not that they leave their two euros to a northern euro and a southern that’s
Currently thinking and I know that within labor they’re having this conversation again
Exactly how you implement it exactly how you do it. I don’t know but I mean
Ultimately, I have to say this
I I I know a lot of people have lost a lot of money being short of the year, right?
Over the last decade and more but I think we have now reached the point where I am now pretty bearish on the euro
It’s all yourself. Yeah, and I think Germany faces some big long-term problems
I think we the massive changes in the car industry in particular
Are gonna pose some real problems the German economy and years to come so we have these auto tariffs that are that the u.s
Is hanging over you have the head of the a of the specialization, which is a great Trump trick, isn’t it? Gee I love tariffs
drives the mad I mean you think of what percentage of German GDP comes from the auto
Industry is very high
And then you have so we have this plan that’s come from the Commerce Department’s been delivered to the White House. They’ve kept it very
Secret so far it’s been leaked out that it will be more targeted
tariffs versus a
Shotgun, but in other words that may they may try to protect Tesla and electric vehicles because I mean he imagined this Tesla
You’ve got 20,000 German engineers that are going to be producing electric vehicles. You’ve got
250 300 billion dollars of capital
expenditures and investments from both wagon and BMW that’s coming into the electric vehicle space, but
How does how does how does how do they come up? How do how do they do a deal here with Trump?
because you’ve got macron and
and the French agricultural
Demands, right? So Trump would never go away
so that’s how does Germany like who’s I think it’s Kissin Kissinger once said
Years ago. He said the only problem with Europe is I never know who to call. Yeah, right
like how does I know Kissinger said that and of course, you know, there were
American administrations for years who actually encouraged
The creation of a European political project and one of the reasons of course was there were half a million American troops
You know during the Cold War helping maintain the peace in Europe at a massive cost to America
But all of that all of that sixties and seventies thinking that came from the USA about Europe
Ultimately proved to be wrong because how could you have one Foreign Minister for Europe?
How can you have one finance minister for Europe when you’ve got these incredibly disparate?
Not just economies but cultures. It doesn’t work. It just doesn’t well, how does the white house deal with this?
Macron in France. That won’t give German the
agricultural
Concessions that they need and then the Germans you have this situation
I think he’s got the more he wants them. Actually Trump’s got them terrified
I mean, don’t forget
You know six months ago when he when he first spoke about the iniquity as he sort of of the car trade
Across the Atlantic between the EU and America, you know, and he talked about tariffs
I mean within four or five days they bundled mr. Young car onto an aeroplane and sent him to the White House
They are terrified of Trump. They’re terrified of this threat of tariffs and ultimately I think
Yeah agriculture forget there’s gonna be no deal and I would call drew any card at all. So
They don’t give on agriculture then what kid isn’t then?
How can the EU and Germany offer Trump something that would satisfy Trump’s demands? That’s it
Don’t forget these these standoffs could go on for a long time
This doesn’t have to be resolved tomorrow. But I mean the idea in Germany that
that Trump could
Impose punitive tariffs on cars as I say, he’s actually got the more he wants them in some ways. Well, Japan got the joke
I mean if you look at Japan went through this year
Do you know the percentage of Japan Japanese cars that are made the United States?
It’s close to 70% of the car itself in the high 60s most it’s like 18 to 22 percent
So so Japan got the memo
90s. Yeah, and now
Germany and Bose wagon and BMW have to are getting the memo but the cheapness of these European auto
companies
BMW is trading at the largest spread discount to General Motors that we’ve ever seen the decade
So it feels like to us the bear traps report that a lot of this but is priced in and if Trump delivers
Something I’ll just as if softens up a touch you could have a substantial
Mean reversion in what he will do cause it’s something I mean that isn’t that isn’t isn’t isn’t that the way that Trump plays?
Ask for that but settle for that and yeah
And there may be a deal coming but at the moment I don’t think you’re gonna see a settlement of this quickly
And I think again we need to make this point very strongly that
Everything changes in the European Union this year the Parliament changes the Commission changes the ECB changes
Over the course of this summer. There are going to be no deals done with the European Union
There’s gonna be no one there and 5g. I mean, you know
So Europe, it’s got this 5g weapon. I mean, this is a major weapon because as 5g that you know,
The major telecom infrastructure of the world China wants to have their companies have more control over 5g
Your your Trump needs the Europeans on board with the US
Platform and the US and and the Europeans have now held back in recent days saying that there won’t stop Hawaii
engines China
I know
I know I know while in many of these areas you almost think that some of this European decision making is just despite Trump
I mean Iran being a classic
Yeah
A classic case of where you almost think every pronouncement Trump makes on Iran the EU say something different as I say
Don’t expect much transactional business to take place this year between the European Union and an America or anybody else. This is a
Month after month after month of elections. That’s what Europe is going through this year and we’ll know by November
Well, nobody will know by November what the shape of those institutions is going to be I suspect as I say that at the center
They will carrot that they will carry on with their centralizing
but you may see a European Parliament that has such a big minority of
Euroskeptics that effectively they can block a lot of new legislation
Going through so we could finish up at the end of this year with an e you even more stalemated than it is now
Let’s get into your vision from middle-class
Britain and Britain itself for the next like how does
How do how does your views and your concept actually help the man on the street? And what’s your vision for the next five years?
Breaks, it will happen. I
Don’t think it’s gonna happen this year
But breaks, it will happen. Why?
Because the genie is out of the bottle people have made their minds up
And what the negotiating process has shown us is the sheer arrogance of these bureaucrats in Brussels
I mean people Britain now hate them. They are real hate figures
so we so we will be free of this thing at some point of next two or three years what that means is
We genuinely become a self-governing nation. We start to make our own laws again, which we haven’t done for decades now
We could use
That opportunity to make things cuz it’ll be worse for ourselves or make them considerably better for ourselves
but the argument that I’m gonna go on making with brexit is
Here is our opportunity to look at a section of our economy that no one talks about anymore the 5.4 million people in Britain
Who run their own businesses or act as sole traders who provide over 60 percent of employment?
in the private sector and it while crucial to economic growth and everything else within our economy and
Governments in days of capitalism used to help these guys
By lifting the burden of regulation off their backs or whatever else it may be
We’re not living in capitalism. We’re living in an age of global corporatism
We’re living in an age where very big companies are very big governments acting concert and no one frankly gives a damn about everybody else
My vision for brexit Britain is one will be genuinely
economically, let me liberate these people and let them get out there and try and make their own money and and yet I know people
Will say well
The shades of regulars and the shades of Thatcherism in what you’re saying
But the answer is it worked and it worked then and I think it would work now and on the world stage
I think brexit Britain becomes a very different country on the world stage
We’ve been we’ve been seriously hemmed in but you know unable to make our own trade deals unable, really
to fulfill our role in the world, and and I think
logically, and obviously
It is the english-speaking peoples of the world which basically means America and the Commonwealth
And I think and believe are going to get a whole lot closer. And when do we get there last that?
that election
What general election? Yeah in the UK at the moment. It’s not in the interest of either party to have a general election
So all the guff you read in the newspapers about an imminent election, none of it’s happening. All right, it just is not
Going to happen
but if the Tory party if the Tory party don’t deliver brexit
What you will then see is a fracture on the center-right of politics that will perhaps be even bigger than the fracture
We’ve seen to the center from Corbin’s Labour Party
So British politics is actually a little bit more fluid than it’s been for some time
But I do think so an election within two years but not within a year. I would think very unlikely within a year
okay, very unlikely within a year, but if we haven’t left the EU there might be a European election and
If that’s the case, I should be back in the front lines doing my stuff. It’s a pleasure to have you
Thank you very much. Okay

77 thoughts on “🔴 Brexit – Will the UK Leave the EU? (w/ Nigel Farage) | Real Vision Clasics

  1. Going to watch this later, to have some insights on the EU market and see if what can I do to make money trading on it.

  2. Congrats on interviewing a racist, a nationalist, a populist, an individual who signal handily takes responsibility for dividing the UK down the middle destroying families in the process.

  3. Brexit is a scam, Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees Mogg and the rich brexiteers are scared of the new tax law the EU has made, it will come in to affect from 2020, it says that people and business must pay its tax where they conduct their business, it would not be funny if they had to pay tax, but it would be funny if they had to pay tax, they do at the moment not pay what they should, so now they have come up with brexit, it will ruin many many people, i wonder how many that will get killed just to avoid tax….

  4. Old dated new . Hate any that do that . So I will never watch Real Vision Finance again . They have to deceive to get viewers.

  5. Britain wants to be friends with the people of Europe but we will not be ruled by Brussels Britain will govern its own laws

  6. The first lock is the transition period, which lasts until at least 2021. We must
    hand over an estimated £39 billion for nothing, be bound by EU law and take
    orders from an unelected Joint Committee operating under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Will the EU27 agree an equitable free trade agreement before the end of 2020? Unlikely, since all the goodies they want in the “future partnership” are set out in the Northern Ireland backstop, which kicks in automatically on 1st January 2021 unless superseded by a
    partnership” agreement. Full ratification by all Member States is required
    before any such agreement can come into force. Achieving this in time to avoid
    entering the backstop would be nothing short of miraculous, even if the EU
    agrees to extend the transition period for one or two years. So it is more pay
    with no say and a likely doubling of the Brexit bill to £80 billion, to be paid with
    no reference to British MPs.Not only does the backstop carve out Northern Ireland a an EU province and set a border in the Irish Sea, it creates a partial “customs union" that requires us to implement EU trade tariffs and with no decision making powers.
    Under highly restrictive “non-regression clauses”. the UK also agrees to
    implement all EU emimnmental. competition, state aid and tax harmonisation laws, with the unelected Joint Committee and the ECJ once again able to punish us for any perceived backsliding. British farmers will be locked into a subsidy regime well below support received by EU27 farmers , who nevertheless
    retain tariff-free access to the UK. British agriculture would be decimnted. It
    means we could not support British businesses, give ourselves a competitive edge in new technologies where we excel. strike independent trade deals or diverge in key policy areas Such as good regulatory and tax Free EU access to UK fisheries to sit down as a marker for negotiation future “deal”
    The Political Declaration replicates all the onerous “non-regression” clauses of
    the backstop and requires even more surrender of sovereignty via participation in and funding of the EU’s aerospace and defence programmes, free access to UK waters for EU fishermen, a full customs union and common trade policy, free movement by the backdoor under “mobility” clauses, EU control of UK agriculture via the state aid rules and in general full adherence to the acquis communautaire in all policy areas.

  7. Farage is the extremist. That guy is so full of it there is very little he says here that makes any sense or even it true at all.

  8. I very much doubt that the UK will leave the EU in the form that the British people want and voted for, as the elites will not allow it, as the self-interested establishment who are the minority elite who behind the scenes mould nations for their own financial enrichment and basically do not care what the effects have on 9 out of 10 people of any of the EU28.
    EU Membership v BREXIT – the Future Truth – https://worldinnovationfoundation.blogspot.com/2016/05/eu-membership-v-brexit-future-truth.html

  9. Real Vision Classics are the best videos from our premium subscription service released free, often a few months after the original air date. The original air date is in the top left corner as the video starts. Film date is located in the description.

  10. It's a possibility that Farage along with his friends in hedge funds and private polling shorted the pound before the election. Doesn't surprise me given he primarily worked in currency.

  11. Nigel Farage is one of few politicians who can think and speak in terms of real business. Still Alastair Campbell was audatious enough to say "You are political class too!" on ITV programme. He is definitely not. This is the most illuminating interview I have seen in years. Thanks for uploading.

  12. Fraudrage the modern day Guy Fawkes who is creating again the economy downturn that he said he didn't want, right thing ????your are destroying livelihoods and families all for his own ego!

  13. I can't see why you have wasted time with this pointless wanker. He has never been in business, he knows nothing and he is a common knave.

  14. Short term it will hurt business,however long term the same businesses will be better off,,, I support it and so does the United Kingdom

  15. Farage did not liberate his country; he sold it to the United States. He cleverly betrayed his people with a pile of lies. The American flag is waiting for a new little star. Nothing wrong with it, but the British should have known the truth; nobody in this world can prosper without partners, which in this case will be very, very cumbersome in the Uk economy and politic.

  16. Many EU (anti-Brexit) bots appear to have been assigned to this comment board. Its the usual bot approach, short, rude, provocative, lacking in actual argument but full of insults.

  17. 25:16 EXACTLY! SAY IT STRAIGHTFORWARD, THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF MUSLIM INVASION! why Nigel, u haven't supported tommy robinson? just coz u didn't want to risk losing ur position n get clashes of morons attacking u with some bullshit racist names? stop that muslim invasion on UK once u r in power in UK or stop it in europe once ur voice may count there

  18. What a charming scammer is Nigel Farage. The truth is a flexible concept for him. His comments about the WTO, the referendum and Corbyn are untrue.

  19. Mr Farage get your facts right. Labour has always been a Jam Tomorrow party and Never hard left. It is now full of Blairites. Thatchers little darlings. In fact, Labour and the Conservatives are two sides of the same coin. Marx had a similar view of them

  20. Every European country needs to take back control. The UN & EU must be completely eradicated never to form again. Thinking they can play with people's lives and turn into a dictatorship with no consequences.

  21. Boris can not deliver Brexit. He is not born in Britain. He is even not elected by the British people. Imagine he would deliver a Halloween-Clown-Brexit – what a disaster for the UK and the British people and British history. This is funny but not for the British people that have to pay the Brexit-Clown-Price for the next 500 years.

  22. BBC fake news day we need big foreign fishing boats to survive, can someone tell these idiots we can build really big FISHING TRAWLERS, GET IT FAKE NEWS.

  23. its disappointing to see ill educated, bitter insults by people like Frankly Frank. Why don't you have a proper debate Frank?

  24. EU structure: The dictator/s control the commission which then control the democracies of the club members. The question is…who are the people at the top?

  25. After three years Brexit without Brexit and no End Brexit and no result I think we should stop this Brexit shit. We can not discuss three years Brexit and then there is no Brexit only disaster and chaos and the clowns are always happy. And who pays the price? In my opinion: I have enough Brexit. Better Britain joins the EU again and the British people are happy and there is no Deal Brexit, No Brexit, No deal, no risk to pay anything and no US Trump´USA who wants to buy even Greenland from Denmark – his closest ally and friend – but for the USA the Danish people are only "money" – only a slave country for the USA. Is this friendship`?

  26. If we get out we will still have the same Banks robbing the fuck out of us. But now Crap GMO crops from the USA and the sale NHS. you cant trust anybody. I hope we get out. but I don't like poison food. Yet again we will get screwed remember this
    Yet again.

  27. Out me a s less mass immigration which heipling to destroy our NHS & Social services. We must control mass immigration or die as a country!

  28. For all you out there beyond the UK. Above you see a prime example of a privately educated, ex stock broker, who tries to pass himself off as a man of the people when in fact he's very unpopular in the UK – can't get elected (despite trying seven times) and is merely a distrupter that the more gullible fall for. His life work is to leave the EU … whilst retaining his EU pension, he's the very thing he argues against – a professional, establishment figure and one of the elite. The fact his big buddy is one D Trump should set the alarm bells ringing … his other 'mates' keep finding themselves up in court on various fraud and corruption charges.

  29. There is a clear danger that we may only leave in name only. Legally, it's a minefield of scenarios and statutes that will certainly need to be addressed before we completely leave no ties whatsoever. However, as far as i'm concerned, we left on 31/5/2019 end of story. Others might say October, but i will certainly not follow or recognise EU law, although it might be inevitable no matter what i say or do.

  30. I am part of right wing, but Corbyn is the only European politician that tells the truth about Zionist control over EU institutions.

  31. Nigel said politicians aren't well paid. That only refers to the good and honest politicians. When you see a career politician retire as multi millionaires, you know they are corrupt

  32. He took a pay hit to make britain great again. Legend of a human and the reason The UK voted leave in 2016. NO DEAL BREXIT ASAP.

  33. It is a mistake of the British people( the Brexiteerpart) to think everything will go bether once UK has left the EU. No, it will not. Everything will be the same as before, only it will be far more worse for UK (and for EU). UK will still have the EU as a neighbour with who the UK has to do business with. I can not immagine UK will turn completely on itself when stepped out the EU. That would be setting the clock back to the Middle Ages. So UK will have to start negotiations with EU all over again. But now on a worse base, because UK is no member of the EU anymore. Some in the UK expects that the US will come to the aid of Brittain. That would be an even worser solution for UK. UK will than be a colony of the US, serving the interests of USA, not the interests of UK people. That would be falling of the frying pan into the fire.

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