Why an ISIS Comeback May Look Unlike Anything Seen Before | WSJ


(quietly tense electronic music) – [Narrator] This video
released by the Pentagon shows a raid on the compound of the Islamic State’s
ideological leader and founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It resulted in his death and marked one of the biggest defeats for the militant group known as ISIS. – He died after running
into a dead end tunnel, whimpering and crying and
screaming all the way. – [Narrator] His successor
was announced just days later. (explosions rumbling) That was not the first major
loss ISIS had suffered. – This is all ISIS. Now, on the bottom, that’s
as of today, this is ISIS. There’s none, the caliphate
is gone as of tonight. (crowd cheering) – That was a massive setback
(gunfire rattling) for the physical caliphate
that had for years spread its brutal regime of
terror across large areas of Iraq and Syria.
(group shouting) But as officials at the time warned, that wasn’t the end of the militant group. – This is not the end of
the fight against ISIS. ISIS still lives on in various cells and in the minds of many of the people in the areas that we’ve liberated. (women shouting) – What that victory did not do was destroy ISIS as a military force. – [Narrator] Jennifer Cafarella is a Syria and ISIS specialist and one of the author’s of
“ISIS’s Second Comeback.” It’s an assessment that uses
declassified information and research to develop a picture of the next ISIS resurgence. – ISIS had already dispersed
into populated areas as well as ungoverned spaces
like the Syrian desert in central Syria to regroup and return to an offensive campaign as an insurgency. (explosion rumbling)
(muffled group chattering) – [Narrator] Following the
defeat of the physical caliphate was a string of attacks,
(muffled group chattering) several in Afghanistan, including one on a government
building that killed seven, but the biggest of the attacks was the so-called Easter
Bombings in Sri Lanka, where a series of blasts
killed more than 300 people. Just a few days after that, there was a call from
its now-deceased leader to redouble efforts and further the extremist group’s
cause around the world. – So we saw several messages
from Baghdadi and others really urging people to continue, promising the return of some
form of the Islamic State. We started hearing about
attacks being inspired. We heard about funding going
to places like Afghanistan to sort of expand the
caliphate in that way. (tense orchestral music) (man shouting in foreign language) – [Narrator] But as the group continued to spread its ideology globally, a decision by President
Trump to pull U.S. forces out of Syria shocked the region, intensifying the fear of a
physical ISIS resurgence. – The worst thing any commander in chief could do to the soldiers is
to give back to the enemy land taken through blood sacrifice. – [Narrator] As the U.S. left, Turkey and Turkish-backed
forces advanced into Syria, seizing territory held by Kurdish forces, those same Kurdish forces
guarding some prison camps and detention centers
holding ISIS prisoners and family members
linked to Islamic State. According to the Syrian
Democratic Forces or SDF, there are just over 12,000
ISIS fighters in detention, including more than 2000 foreign fighters, and estimates from U.S.
forces on the ground say there are tens of thousands
of ISIS family members scattered across internally
displaced people camps or IDPs. – What you can see here in red are facilities from
which ISIS has succeeded or attempted to break out family members and fighters from prisons. Now, those breakouts thus far
are not highly coordinated, so we’re talking about riots and small levels of ISIS members
paying bribes, essentially, to guards so that they can escape or be smuggled out of these facilities. – [Narrator] While Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan assured Trump he would secure the prisons inside the proposed safe zone, some of the most important ones
are located outside of that, and it’s not just the
prisons under threat. The instability in
Syria is a major concern for neighboring Iraq. – [Jennifer] On both sides, in Syria here and on the Iraqi side, this is ungoverned desert. Now, there are small pockets
of the border, essentially, that the Iraqis are securing, but the rest of this is essentially desert and, therefore, ISIS can traverse it. – [Narrator] There are also
concerns that the other players in the region involved
don’t have any interest in keeping ISIS at bay. – The U.S. withdrawal from northeast Syria creates a security vacuum, and multiple actors are
now going to compete with military force to fill that vacuum. All of the other actors in this region are fighting in Syria for different goals that they prioritize far and above beyond the threat from ISIS, and frankly, that includes the Kurds. We’ve accelerated,
basically, the disintegration of the unity of effort against ISIS that only the United
States was able to create. (pensive mallet percussion music) – [Narrator] But how concerned should we be with these threats, and what might an ISIS
resurgence look like? – What one has to watch
for is how they sort of try to reconstitute or rebuild
or rebrand themselves in a way such that they have
learned from those lessons and are able to endure
longer as a caliphate than they were the first time. I don’t have the imagination to tell you how that’s gonna go, but
their ideology remains a powerful one and one that
inspires a lot of people and one that is expansive and worldwide. (group chattering) – The global ISIS expansion has included adding new formal provinces to the ISIS structure. We’ve seen a redoubling
of that ISIS effort to expand in Northern Africa and now an expansion
farther south to the DRC and other Central African states. We’ve simultaneously seen an expansion in the East Asia regions. ISIS has had a province in Afghanistan since early in the caliphate but has now expanded to
include a separate province in Pakistan and a separate
province in India. These ISIS provinces are in addition to what ISIS calls the East Asia Province based in the Philippines where ISIS had achieved
a major success in 2017, seizing the provincial capital of Marawi and defending it against the
Philippine Security Forces for a number of weeks. – We’ve never had a terror
group resurrect itself in the same form. These groups have a way of metastasizing and reconstituting themselves in ways that perhaps we don’t always have the imagination to foresee. They still have millions
of dollars in revenue, not nearly to the levels
that they did at their peak. When we think about the future of ISIS, I think it’s really
important to not be confined to that box of thinking of
what it was in 2014, 2015, 2016 or to think of collapse
strictly in the form of the physical caliphate,
because that virtual caliphate it is as important and
arguably will be key to however it reconstitutes
itself if it’s able to. (pensive orchestral music)

100 thoughts on “Why an ISIS Comeback May Look Unlike Anything Seen Before | WSJ

  1. ISIS Who are they?
    Who support them as a weapon?
    How long that Americans tried?
    Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm
    Which your head always is not true

  2. NOW ISIS AND AMERICA ARE EXERCISING AND CONFIRMING ITS REUNION BASED ON CONSTITUTIONAL MATTERS AND POLITICAL RELIGIOUS MATTERS IN AMERICA…..WE BEEN TOP ELITE SINCE DAY 1

  3. WARS OF MISUNDERSTANDING ALWAYS IMPACTS THE WORLD COUNTRY ALLIES FROM PAST AND MAKING EFFECT ON KHADAFI 40 YEARS OF TERRORISM AND FIGHTING ISIS MILITANTS FOR THEY CONTROL OF TERROR AND NOT FREEDOM RIGHTS …….AMERICAN TROOPS SHALL JOIN THE KHADAFI WAR FOR REVOLUTIONARY FREEDOM PURPOSE ALLIEING OURSELF WITH ISIS TROOPS

  4. WORLD BANK GROUP© ACCOUNT CODE NAME : WF
    ALIAS SARINAH ALIAS WSB® (CODE 0031146WF4649)® WF ALIAS SARINAH ALIAS WSB®
    (CODE AM-FM 777/RI-045/001/UBS)® Note : ® Registered/terdaftar/memiliki hak
    paten © Company/Perusahaan.

     

    LETTER "O" MANDATARIS LANGIT DAN
    BUMI, BUK-ISIM STNA 369 NUMBER. 034683 600 9845550 G0ENGGOENG SOEWOENG. SK
    6470078 RI1 REG P1 NEO PENTAGRAM INA 9999 RATU KENCANA ROOM A1-1A MICROFILM ID
    CODE: 27500.89799.4533 AZ. THE MOJOPAHIT-CIREBON MERCUSUAR DUNIA. DEWAN IKATAN
    DOCUMENT OF INTERNASIONAL. CERTIFICATE CODE 99.98 ISIM-A1/B2 STNA 369 AGRARIA
    999,9 NEO PENTAGON.

     

    Youtube : Sarinah WF Soekarno

    [email protected]

  5. why we keep talking about isis

    why arent we talking about:
    Alpha 66 and Omega 7.Animal Liberation Front.Army of God.Aryan Nations.Atomwaffen Division.Black Liberation Army.The Covenant, The Sword, and the Arm of the Lord.Earth Liberation Front.

  6. LOL I love how the lame-stream media can't even handle public likes/dislikes anymore. They know we do not care about their idiotic opinions and they have lost most of their influence. 

    Good Riddance!

  7. Turkish Safe Zone? Just like the safe zones Turkey created for the Armenians.
    Recognize the #ArmenianGenocide. #SenateResolution150.
    https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/armenian-genocide

  8. Haha, they have all these high brow, book smart women advising on a poverty induced barbarian uprising of predominantly radical young men. It is so cringe. ISIS exists because our world lacks any authenticity.

  9. why not kill all the ISIS this guys r evils if u give them another chance to crate another insurgency ISIS will rebor once again.

  10. Why are these people condemned to live in perpetual war? There must be a solution for them to get peace, ever since I was born the middle east was in permanent brutal war, why can’t they say enough!?

  11. The question is, was Al-Baghdadi killed because he is a terrorist, or because he is just a random Iraqi version of Jeffrey Epstein ?!

  12. You can't bomb or shoot and ideology away as much as I hate terrorists they are still out there hiding behind normal looking faces in the minds of people we will never know till they strike God bless America and f**k terror!

  13. why don't we just nuke everything? i mean really why do we treat them like people, why do we abide by the laws of armed conflict? it's not like they're an opposing nation, they're terrorists not people

  14. i've never understood how those hoes brain work, why do slaves worship their slaver? why do slaves love enslavement? i mean sure we all got our fetishes but our fetishes end at the bedroom door.

  15. T R U M P 2 0 2 0 ! !
    🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

  16. Meanwhile in Rotherham,Rochdale ,Oldham etc etc etc etc caliphates aplenty ,waiting waiting waiting to link up like in War Of the Worlds

  17. If ISIS grows in Africa they’ll be very disappointed to find out how little we care. They’ll stay most relevant near oil and leaders the US doesn’t like.

  18. "only the united states was able to create" – you mean ISIS right. ISIS was built due to america negligence.
    america de-stabalises other countries in the name of democracy and freedom, but in reality they intervene to destroy the country and when there is no power, then they use the resources available in that country to make money. you guys are actually the birth place for terror. america is a failed state.

    you help iraq to destroy iran during iraq iran war, by providing weapons and chemical weapons to iraq and then after few years, iraq wasnt ready to be a pet of america, america goes in iraq saying that they have weapons of mass destruction but found none. what else do you want to confirm that america is a terriorist state.

    recently america pulled its forces from syris so that turks can attack kurds, who were allie of america and were the real peope behind defeating ISIS and not foreign national army. everyone knows this has made the kurds to think that america has betrayed them. so what do you think kurds will be thinking? america is a allie? nooooooooooooooooooooo.
    they are angry, and this anger can be the reason for another ISIS. america cannot be believed.

  19. so now you involved tik tok as well. i think this is a trick used by america to make tik tok look unsafe and that they will ban it and also will allege china government behind this. you guys are useless. instagram and facebook too are unsafe. ISIS must be using them now as well i think. you guys show yourself as the best nation to live in, but the reality is you destabalise other countries, and make america look live very good nation, while its not. america makes money by destabalising the world

  20. Brought to you by their sponsor's Locked Martin, Northrup Grumman and the other 50 or so military companies that make up the US military industrial complex!! Pure propaganda, they just need a reason to stay in the area to steal all the oil.

  21. If another arab nation revolts against a dictator, CIA would revive ISIS to hinder them and solidify rule of curropt dictators so that arab nations remain trapped in poverty and totalitarianism

  22. O yeah!! Other countries do not want to defeat isis as much as usa does!! No claim could have been more american.. isis grew when americans successfully destabilized iraq and later syria.. and isis started losing ground when russians entered and bashar al asad started wining his territory back.. But it seems like cia is resurrecting isis so that poor innocent american people can be convinced that usa should keep it's military presence in the region. This is what cia always does… it always used terrorists for it's own purposes…

  23. Let's not celebrate this yet yes there is still alot more to go, the possiblity of new leader emerge is high and the sent back fighter to their homeland they might come back and recruit more fighter.

  24. As long as Turkey,qatar exist they fund remaining isis.
    Turkey and Qatar should be financially screwed.
    Women of isis wife’s should sterilised and jailed for life.
    Anyone who supports isis across globe should be sterilised and jailed for life that’s the only thing can save innocents life’s.
    Turkeys erdogan daughter put out a medical camp to save injured isis members whom her father used to kill kurds.
    Erdogan jailed 260 journalists for 60 years.
    & of course media’s like vice do the counter intuitive things that help terrorists and terrorist sympathisers.

  25. Big defeat? He was in Idlib among his followers and other terrorists , which was under US protection and Syria,Russia were warned not to attack .

  26. ISIS Generals are Crypto Zionist Jews with Muslim names. Their goal is to carry out the Yinon Plan by destabilizing all of Israel's Arab neighbors with tribal and ethnic interfighting. Meanwhile the Zionist state steals the resources and land.
    https://www.transcend.org/tms/2017/09/israeli-website-claims-isis-commander-revealed-as-mossad-agent/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *